Last weekend, the military conflict in the Middle East escalated, and the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for crude oil and one of the world's most important chokepoints, was directly affected and shut down. The market generally expects that the risk premium of crude oil will be rapidly pushed up by the risk-averse sentiment, and the short-term fluctuations in international oil prices will be significantly intensified. Meanwhile, this conflict may spread to the chemical industry, and the prices of some chemical products are likely to rise rather than fall.
The Strait of Hormuz's ban on navigation increases the certainty of rising oil prices.
On March 1st, according to Xinhua News Agency, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced on the evening of February 28th that it would prohibit any ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is widely regarded as one of the major arteries for crude oil and one of the most important international chokepoints. As the route through which oil from the Middle East oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are exported, this strait transports approximately one-fifth of the world's total oil transportation volume. A large amount of liquefied natural gas produced in Qatar is also transported out through this strait.
A petroleum industry analyst stated that this indicates that the conflict has escalated from the "geopolitical financial level" to the "level of disrupted physical flow", and it is one of the most serious risks of energy flow disruption in recent years.
Several respondents told reporters that currently, oil prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Some overseas institutions predict that the Brent crude oil futures price may exceed $100 per barrel.
"Short-term oil prices have room to rise, and the Brent crude oil futures price is expected to reach the range of 75 US dollars per barrel." said Wu Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information.
Jin Lianchuang's crude oil analyst Xi Jiarui predicts that the WTI crude oil futures price and the Brent crude oil futures price will rise to $70 per barrel and $75 per barrel respectively within a short period of time. They will show a trend of periodic upward surges depending on the progress of the events, and even exceed $80 per barrel.
Currently, geopolitical conflicts are widely recognized as the key variable in the oil market. Wang Haobo, the director of the Oil Market Research Institute of the China Petroleum & Chemical Research Institute, predicted in early February that in 2026, geopolitical conflicts would be the biggest variable in the international crude oil market. The global oil market will engage in a dynamic game between the "reality of oversupply" and "risks of geopolitical conflicts".
Industry insiders suggest that close attention should be paid to the production increase policy at the OPEC+ (the main oil-producing country alliance) meeting in March. From the fundamental situation, the international crude oil market still maintains a state of oversupply. The latest report on the international oil market released by the International Energy Agency in February predicts that there will be a 3.73 million barrels per day supply surplus in 2026, accounting for approximately 4% of global demand.
The chemical industry chain or the entire sector is moving out of the upward trend simultaneously.
Industry insiders predict that this conflict may spread to the chemical industry, with methanol and sulfur being the most directly affected.
A senior analyst in the chemical industry told a reporter that for the chemical industry, the core risk is the increased uncertainty in imports. The export of chemical products from the Middle East is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the disturbances in the Red Sea. The over-supply situation of domestic chemical products is expected to improve. Domestic refineries, due to difficulties in raw material procurement and severe losses, may reduce production significantly in March and April, and their operating rates in the second quarter may be significantly reduced.
"The market situation depends on the persistence of the conflict: short-term conflicts will lead to valuation recovery and profit-taking by short sellers. In the long term, the prices of chemical products need to be revalued. Domestic production needs to increase the utilization rate to make up for the shortage in the Middle East. This is expected to drive the recovery of chemical product profits." He said.
An increase in crude oil costs will trigger fluctuations throughout the entire industry chain, and there is an expectation of an increase in domestic petrochemical products. According to Ma Yingjun from the Energy and Chemical Industry Research Group of Zhuochuang Information, the cost rise will directly drive up the prices of basic chemical raw materials such as naphtha, olefins, and aromatics, and subsequently push up the prices of downstream products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, ethylene glycol, and styrene.
For the oil refining industry, an upward trend in oil prices will lead to a simultaneous strengthening of product prices such as refined oil, fuel oil, and petroleum coke. However, the increase in raw material costs may result in a differentiated situation for processing profits. Products like PX and pure benzene in the aromatics chain are significantly influenced by the cost of naphtha, and their prices tend to move in line with crude oil. The domestic petrochemical market will enter a phased pattern of being prone to rising prices rather than falling in the short term.
March 2nd, 2026 Shanghai Securities News